煤矿区水环境质量现状评价研究

运用灰色 聚类方 法对韩城 矿区桑树 坪煤矿 水环境质 量现 状进 行了 评价， 其评 价结 果与 模糊综合评 判大体 吻合。该 方法不仅 注意到水 质分级 界限的模 糊性， 而且 信息 利用 率和 精度 均有 较大幅度的 提高。因 此，利用 灰色聚类 进行水 环境质量 评价不 仅方法简 便，而且 结论更接 近客观实 际     

Effects of uncontrolled particulate matter release on precipitation under warfare conditions

This study has shown theoretical, observed and experimental evidence of pollutants released, transported and deposited during the Kosovo conflict in 1999 and their effects on precipitation in Serbia. The greatest bombardment of the chemical industry, oil refineries and fuel storage in Serbia which occurred during April, resulted in releases of many hazardous, toxic and cancerogenic substances. The number of April's days with precipitation greater or equal to 0.1 mm in 1999 are compared to those in the period from 1961 to 1990 registered at thirty meteorological stations in Serbia and especially at the Belgrade-Observatory station in the period from 1888 to 1995. The maximums of days with precipitation greater or equal to 0.1 mm were at the wider Belgrade area and at the central and southwestern parts of Serbia during April 1999. This is confirmed by using the Eta trajectory analysis.     

A spatial clustering perspective on autocorrelation and regionalization

We revisit one of the classical problems in geography and cartography where multiple observations on a lattice (N) need to be grouped into many fewer regions (G), especially when this number of desired regions is unknown a priori. Since an optimization through all possible aggregations is not feasible, a hierarchical classification scheme is proposed with an objective function sensitive to spatial pattern. The objective function to be minimized during the assignment of observations to regions (classification) consists of two terms: the first characterizes accuracy and the second, model complexity. For the latter, we introduce a spatial measure that characterizes the number of homogeneous patches rather than the usual number of classes. A simulation study shows that such a classification procedure is less sensitive to random and spatially correlated error (noise) than non-spatial classification. We also show that for conditional autoregressive error (noise) fields the optimal partitioning is the one that has the highest within-units generalized Moran coefficient. The classifier is implemented in ArcView to demonstrate both a socio-economic and an environmental application to illustrate some potential applications.

Risk factors associated with truck-involved fatal crash severity: Analyzing their impact for different groups of truck drivers

Introduction: Fatal crashes that include at least one fatality of an occupant within 30 days of the crash cause large numbers of injured persons and property losses, especially when a truck is involved. Method: To better understand the underlying effects of truck-driver-related characteristics in fatal crashes, a five-year (from 2012 to 2016) dataset from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) was used for analysis. Based on demographic attributes, driving violation behavior, crash histories, and conviction records of truck drivers, a latent class clustering analysis was applied to classify truck drivers into three groups, namely, ‘‘middle-aged and elderly drivers with low risk of driving violations and high historical crash records,” ‘‘drivers with high risk of driving violations and high historical crash records,” and ‘‘middle-aged drivers with no driving violations and conviction records.” Next, equivalent fatalities were used to scale fatal crash severities into three levels. Subsequently, a partial proportional odds (PPO) model for each driver group was developed to identify the risk factors associated with the crash severity. Results' Conclusions: The model estimation results showed that the risk factors, as well as their impacts on different driver groups, were different. Adverse weather conditions, rural areas, curved alignments, tractor-trailer units, heavier weights and various collision manners were significantly associated with the crash severities in all driver groups, whereas driving violation behaviors such as driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs, fatigue, or carelessness were significantly associated with the high-risk group only, and fewer risk factors and minor marginal effects were identified for the low-risk groups. Practical Applications: Corresponding countermeasures for specific truck driver groups are proposed. And drivers with high risk of driving violations and high historical crash records should be more concerned.     

时延神经网络对宝兴树蛙异质种群鸣叫的聚类分析

对瓦屋山宝兴树蛙3个不同海拔分布(A:山下;B:山腰;C:山上)的异质种群鸣叫的时频参数进行分析,发现三地鸣叫各参数互相重叠,无明显界线.常规统计分析不能使三地的鸣叫聚类为各自的组.使用时延神经网络对三地宝兴树蛙鸣叫的时频参数进行有指导聚类,发现三种群鸣叫有地区性差异,并表现出由个体交流引起的山腰种群群体特征的不显著.推测差异可能是因为长期地理隔离所导致.基于神经网络的分析结果,对各种群间的个体交流情况进行了初步估计.图6表1参20     

北京市PM2.5时空分布特征及其与PM10关系的时空变异特征

PM_(2.5)时空分布特征及其与其它污染物的相关关系是PM_(2.5)时空统计分析的主要研究内容.然而,现有的方法直接从监测站点的角度对时空分布特征进行分析,难以有效地揭示PM_(2.5)浓度的聚集分布特征;同时,常用的地理加权回归在对PM_(2.5)与其它污染物间关系进行建模的过程中,缺乏同时考虑时间异质性与空间异质性,从而不能准确地描述依赖关系的时空变异特征.为此,首先借助于空间聚类分析技术,对北京市2014年PM_(2.5)浓度的聚集结构进行探测,在此基础上,通过聚集结构来分析PM_(2.5)季节性时空分布特征.然后,利用地理时空加权回归对北京市PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)季节平均浓度间关系进行建模,依据回归结果分析PM_(2.5)-PM_(10)间关系的时空变异特征.实验结果表明,春夏季节PM_(2.5)污染程度及空间变异程度均低于秋冬季节,各季节PM_(2.5)浓度均表现为北部浓度低、南部浓度高的空间分布特征;地理时空加权回归具有更好的拟合效果,由回归系数进一步可发现,春夏季PM_(2.5)-PM_(10)相关性低于秋冬季PM_(2.5)-PM_(10)相关性;各季节均表现为西北部PM_(2.5)-PM_(10)的相关性高于东南部PM_(2.5)-PM_(10)的相关性.     

2017年兰州市大气污染物输送来源及传输特征模拟分析

利用HYSPLIT后向轨迹模式,结合兰州市AQI（空气质量指数）及常规大气污染物质量浓度数据,模拟研究了2017年1月1日-12月31日以兰州市为受点的大气污染物输送特征.通过聚类分析确定了抵达兰州市气团的主要输送途径和每类路径所对应的污染物质量浓度特征,并利用受体模型PSCF（潜在源贡献因子分析法）和CWT（权重浓度轨迹分析法）,分析了大气污染区域传输对兰州市空气质量的影响,探讨了影响兰州市空气质量的污染物输送来源和可能的潜在源区.结果表明,在影响兰州市的气流轨迹中,污染轨迹多来自兰州市以西和以北方向,污染轨迹约占总轨迹的39.52%,说明外部污染物的输入对兰州市空气质量具有重要影响.其中,第3类轨迹（对应来向为西）的气团对兰州市的空气质量有较大的影响,该类轨迹虽仅占总轨迹的15.21%,但其中污染轨迹数占56.76%,是影响兰州市空气质量的主要传输路径;第4类轨迹（对应来向为东南）的气团最为清洁.研究显示,对兰州市空气质量影响最大的强潜在源区主要分布在青海共和盆地、兰州市本地及周边区域,中等强度潜在源区为内蒙古自治区南部、宁夏回族自治区及甘肃省河西走廊等地区.      

西安市降雪中DOM荧光特性和来源分析

利用三维荧光光谱、平行因子分析模型和后向轨迹模型等,分析西安市降雪中溶解性有机物(DOM)的荧光特性和来源,研究结果可为大气有机污染物的化学组成和来源分析提供数据基础.结果表明,降雪DOM的DOC含量为0. 88～10. 92mg·L~(-1),主要含有类腐殖质、类富里酸、类色氨酸和类酪氨酸,它们荧光强度及其总和与DOC和UV_(254)呈显著正相关(P 0. 01).降雪过程中DOM的荧光指数(FI)、生物源指数(BIX)和腐殖化指数(HIX)值分别为1. 50～1. 75、0. 87～1. 25和1. 11～1. 97,且FI与BIX和HIX分别呈正相关和负相关(P 0. 05).降雪期间气团传输轨迹包括:本地源、起始于新疆(途经甘肃、宁夏)的长距离传输、起始于内蒙古(途经宁夏)和山东(途经河南)的中距离传输,分别占总量的38. 78%、24. 04%、19. 87%和17. 31%.结果也表明,可利用代表类腐殖质、类富里酸、类色氨酸和类酪氨酸荧光峰的荧光强度与其总和表征降水中DOM的含量或相对含量,降雪中DOM兼具生物源和陆源,属于自生来源且有机质为新近产生或具有较强自源特征,本地源对降雪DOM的来源贡献最为显著.     

太原市城区夏季VOCs来源及其对O3生成的贡献

采集太原市城区夏季VOCs样品并分析其浓度特征,使用参数修正法得到VOCs初始浓度,分析其来源及对O₃生成的贡献.结果显示：太原市城区总VOCs平均浓度为48.13 μg/m³,烷烃（25.52 μg/m³）为主要组分.VOCs浓度呈明显日变化特征,在日间（10：00~14：00）光化学产生O₃的关键时段浓度最低.油品挥发、机动车排放、燃煤、植物排放与液化石油气/天燃气（LPG/NG）使用源对修正后环境VOCs的贡献分别为26.89%、25.55%、21.14%、14.99%、11.44%,对O₃生成的贡献分别为21.44%、33.10%、24.07%、13.77%、7.62%.机动车为新鲜排放气团VOCs的重要来源,而油品挥发、燃煤的输送与本地积累是其他（混合、夜间与反应）气团VOCs的重要来源.机动车排放、油品挥发与燃煤为VOCs与O₃生成的重要贡献源,控制此类源排放可减少太原市城区环境VOCs浓度并有效降低O₃生成.     

基于HYSPLIT4模式的天水市颗粒物输送路径

首先利用后向轨迹模式（HYSPLIT）模拟了天水市2017~2019年冬季后向轨迹,分析了50,200,500和1000m 4个不同高度以及500m高度不同聚类数量对路径输送聚类统计结果的影响,并以500m高度四个季节的后向轨迹进行聚类分析,进一步运用权重潜在源贡献分析法（WPSCF）,探讨了研究期间天水市细颗粒物的潜在源区及不同源区对天水市颗粒物浓度的贡献,结果表明,（1）起始点高度为500m时,颗粒物浓度极值比和极值差均较大,聚类结果最具代表性;（2）不同聚类数量分析结果表明,按照总空间变化（Total spatial variation,TSV）显著增加的原则选取的聚类数量较少,且能反映不同方向的轨迹输送特征;（3）天水市不同季节的轨迹聚类结果表明,冬季来自陕西南部的东南路径是PM_2.5污染程度最高的路径,该路径下PM_2.5浓度为78.2μg/m³,春季西北路径的颗粒物浓度最高,PM₁₀和PM_2.5的平均浓度分别是127.9~129.9和40.6~41.0 μg/m³,夏秋季节不同路径的颗粒物浓度相差不大.